Wealth Outlook 2024 - Slow then grow

14 Wealth Outlook 2024 | Our outlook Slow then grow FIGURE 3 YoY change in inflation-adjusted US consumer goods and services spending YoY% change 40 20 2000 2004 Recession PCE: services PCE: goods 20 0 2008 2012 2016 2020 Source: Haver Analytics through October 31 , 2023. In recent years, we’ve likened the record economic swings of 2020-2021 and the inflation that followed as an “earthquake” and “aftershocks.” The amplitude of aftershocks tends to decrease over time. Massive swings in demand from services to goods and back was a recipe for inflation, but those swings are abating ( FIGURE 3 ). For forecasters it has been difficult to determine howmuch of the pandemic period’s strange features will become structural issues for the economy. The evidence suggests that most pandemic impacts are transitory. Supply chains have normalized. Tradeable goods prices have stabilized, and macro stimulus has largely, if not completely, been unwound ( FIGURE 4-5 ).