Wealth Outlook 2024 - Slow then grow

16 Wealth Outlook 2024 | Our outlook Slow then grow YoY% change Recession Real imports of goods Real private residential investment 30 15 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 FIGURE 6 YoY change in imports and real estate investment Source: Haver Analytics through September 30, 2023. Rolling sector recessions are ending Various developed and emerging market economies are currently suffering from drags on economic growth that likely won't be repeated in 2024 and beyond. Export volumes of goods across the world are falling. Manufacturing activity has contracted, along with the faster-adjusting segments of housing markets ( FIGURE 6 ). This is beginning to clear the overhang of high inventories that has been the source of significant recession risk ( FIGURE 7 ). Those who fear a full-blown recession are overlooking that there are sector recessions running through various industries now, impacting the economies most exposed to them. In the US, for example, there is a clear recession in real estate and certain manufacturing sectors, but there is no broad-based collapse. Globally, services industries that endured a depression in 2020 have grown disproportionately and are unlikely to either contract or boom in 2024. This composition of growth benefits the services- heavy US economy for now. But over the coming two years, as the global manufacturing contraction ends, a broader worldwide economic expansion should begin to kick into gear.