Wealth Outlook 2024 - Slow then grow

17 Wealth Outlook 2024 | Our outlook Slow then grow YoY% change Recession Manufacturing & Trade Inventories 25 0 25 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 FIGURE 7 YoY change in US inflation-adjusted business inventories Source: Haver Analytics through September 30, 2023. China’s slide Relative to the US, an opposite dynamic is unfolding in China currently. Property and trade sectors are much larger shares of China’s economic activity, and the larger structural changes needed to clear major imbalances have not been sufficiently implemented. In the near term, these headwinds pose a great challenge for China’s policymakers as discussed in our Asia: faster growth for 2024 as headwinds recede on page 106 . The impact of China’s challenges has not been all bad for the global economy. China’s struggles are lowering the cost of goods worldwide at a time when inflation concerns remain high. The immediate stimulus measures undertaken by the Chinese government in recent months have been significant, probably enough to engender a cyclical recovery in 2024 and into 2025. Indeed, the latest data suggest it has already started. That said, an ongoing, deep slowdown in China is perhaps the biggest risk to worsening the “slow” and delaying the “grow” in our accelerating global growth pattern.