Wealth Outlook 2024 - Slow then grow

Geopolitics and elections: assessing risk in 2024 31 Wealth Outlook 2024 | Our outlook There would be a stark difference in domestic policies if either party unified control of both Congress and the White House. If Congress is not unified, the president still has significant free rein when it comes to foreign policy and regulatory policy. Regulation of domestic natural resources such as oil and gas, the degree of support for Ukraine and cooperation with Europe and other US allies would be starkly different in the case that a Republican candidate was inaugurated president in January 2025 compared to that of any Democrat. The way the US chooses to confront its migration issues, trade and law enforcement at the southern border would also differ starkly, pointing to political risk for Mexico as well, which will also elect FIGURE 5 US president by party, real GDP, equity returns and US dollar Annualized Annualized Unemployment Annualized Real Term Real S&P 500 Real GDP Rate At Start Trade Weighted Party Start Total Return (%) Growth (%) Of Term (%) Dollar Change (%) Date Truman 9.7 4.7 D 04/12/45 Eisenhower 13.3 2.5 2.8 R 01/20/53 Kennedy 9.9 5.3 6.3 D 01/20/61 Johnson 7.9 5.1 5.5 D 11/22/63 Nixon/Ford -2.1 2.7 3.4 R 01/20/69 Carter 1.3 3.2 7.8 -1.0 D 01/20/77 Reagan 9.4 3.6 7.4 0.1 R 01/20/81 Bush 11.0 2.2 5.3 -0.2 R 01/20/89 Clinton 14.2 3.8 7.4 2.2 D 01/20/93 Bush II -5.3 1.9 3.9 -1.5 R 01/20/01 Obama 12.7 2.0 6.9 1.4 D 01/20/09 Trump 13.9 1.8 4.8 -1.5 R 01/20/17 Biden* 2.0 2.8 6.8 3.8 D 01/20/21 Weighted average Republican 5.5 2.5 5.8 -0.7 Democrat 9.6 3.6 5.6 1.5 *Biden figures are through Q2 2023. Source: Haver Analytics through October 5, 2023. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.