Wealth Outlook 2024 - Slow then grow

57 Wealth Outlook 2024 | Opportunistic Our top 10 high conviction potential opportunities FIGURE 2 US semiconductor imports from Taiwan and private construction spending on US manufacturing Private construction: US manufacturing ($bn) US semiconductor imports from Taiwan ($mn) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 250 200 150 100 50 0 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2004 Source: Haver Analytics as of November 15, 2023. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary. But there is more to this story. As FIGURE 2 shows, the US government and its trade allies are offering industrial subsidies to diversify the highly concentrated semiconductor supply chain. Whatever the success of this diversification effort, it points to a strong prospective spending on semiconductor equipment (and battery technology). To date, this has largely only impacted a narrow segment of US construction spending. But in the next coming couple of years, this will be followed by capital equipment outlays.